Amid a backdrop of international uncertainty in Eastern Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán heads into the April 2022 parliamentary elections facing a unified opposition, his party’s first unified opposition since 2014.
Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minister since 2010 (and also 1998-2002), faces increasing pressure domestically and internationally, as opposing parties and members of the international community alike criticize his policy stances, including LGBT issues, election laws, and immigration. Orbán and his Fidesz party, in a nominal coalition with the Christian Democratic People’s Party, have dominated Hungarian Parliament since the 2010 elections, when they took a 2/3rds majority, and subsequently passed a new constitution which curbed judicial independence, voting rights, religious freedoms, and more. Since then, Orbán has maintained his grip on power, winning elections by large margins in 2014 and 2018, and passing measures to cement himself in power. But such measures haven’t been as successful as they seemed: in 2019 local elections, opposition parties gained control of 11 cities, including Budapest, up from 3 in the election cycle prior, leveraging scandals against Fidesz party candidates and incumbents towards the end of the campaign cycle, undermining Fidesz’ typically rigid messaging, and frequently choosing to unify their opposition into support for one candidate. In next month’s parliamentary election, with a unified opposition galvanized by the momentum of the 2019 elections, polls show that Fidesz might be facing their most competitive national election in more than a decade.
Heading into the 2022 election, the opposition parties seem intent to remember the lessons from three years prior. 6 opposition parties formed a coalition, United for Hungary, selecting one candidate to lead them into the parliamentary election. After a competitive two round primary, Peter Marki-Zay, an independent and conservative who previously spent time living in the United States and Canada, narrowly defeated Klara Dobrev, a social democrat. Marki-Zay, mayor of the city of Hodmezovasarhely, has emphasized a foreign policy and governing philosophy that is diametrically opposed to Orbán’s, moving towards the West and “Western values,” while simultaneously criticizing Orbán’s growing ties with global autocracies like Russia and China. Lacking previous ties to Hungarian political parties, he has attacked Orbán and Fidesz from the right, accusing the government of not representing true conservative or Christian values.
The opposition’s efforts to remain a unified front have not been ineffective. Polling data dating back to December 2020 has shown that United for Hungary has stayed close to Fidesz, including, at several points in early 2021, taking the lead. As of February 16, 2022, Fidesz held just a 4% lead over the coalition, with no other opposition parties garnering over 5% support. But close polls don’t necessarily portend close elections, especially considering the electoral reforms of the government. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), responding to these moves, have called for a “full-scale international election observation mission” for the 2022 elections. A rarity for European Union members, the full-scale mission was recommended after the ODIHR issued a report in the runup to this year’s election, and more than sixty members of European Parliament from five parties and nineteen countries called for one, after a 2018 limited mission found faults with how that election had been run, and after the ODIHR met with individuals in Hungary.
The Hungarian government under Orbán has taken significant steps towards cementing their control and opposing Christian liberal democracy models that are commonplace in Western Europe. The government has supported legislation which would effectively force opposition parties to run on a single ballot line, curbed freedoms of the press, taken a publicly hard-line stance against immigration, and has openly promoted the establishment of a Christian illiberal democracy. Accusing Western European political elites of wanting to move into a “post-Christian era,” and arguing that liberal democracy is narrow-minded when it comes to opposing political views, Orbán’s rhetoric has remained staunchly populistic and nationalistic, and often, his policies have mimicked that.
Even at the ballot box, as Hungarians go to the polls to elect their Members of Parliament, Orbán’s purported Christian conservatism is evident. As voters cast ballots for their elected officials, voters will decide on a “child protection” referendum, which is modeled off Russian laws prohibiting “‘gay propaganda’ among minors,” and limits sex education. Even before the referendum has passed, Hungarian courts found that publications comparing an LGBT association to pedophiles are acceptable, basing their ruling partly off of Orbán’s rhetoric. Although some data suggests that Orbán’s populist attempts to play to homophobia to fire up his base is failing amid drops in Hungarian homophobia, he has doubled down, hoping such rhetoric might have similar effects to his anti-immigrant rhetoric in years passed.
Yet, even if the opposition coalition fails to win a majority or plurality, they appear poised to deal a significant blow to Orbán’s designs. Much of the government’s efforts to shift the direction of the nation has been built on the back of their parliamentary supermajority, holding more than 2/3rds of the seats since it first took power in 2010. Short of taking power, United for Hungary stands to make gains across the country, potentially bringing the government coalition to below 2/3rds of the seats, making it harder for the government coalition to pass legislation, though not enough to undo some of the harm brought by Fidesz’ years in power. The coalition has remained well-unified during the campaign, but following the election, it remains to be seen whether the parties can transcend ideological boundaries and maintain an effective government or opposition coalition in parliament.
Hungary stands at the intersection of a plethora of hot-button issues. Amid the Orbán government’s strengthening ties with Russia, Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine has created millions of refugees, some of whom have crossed the Hungarian border, as Orbán shifts his anti-immigrant rhetoric, to an extent. Orbán has spent time in the wake of the Russian invasion working to maintain the delicate balance between supporting Russia to the betterment of the Hungarian people, through such means as negotiating better gas prices, and maintaining their criticism of the invasion of Ukraine. The government also faces pushback from the West, particularly the European Union, putting further pressure on the nation as they face potential decisions about their future. Even amidst the turmoil, a unified opposition heading into the April 2022 parliamentary election shows that the Orbán government is vulnerable. Moving forward, even after the election reveals the strength of Fidesz and United for Hungary, questions remain over the size of the majority Fidesz can garner, and whether the coalition can remain a cogent block beyond this campaign.
Nick Lieggi is a sophomore at Emory University, majoring in political science and history, and enjoys spending his time writing and studying electoral systems across the globe.